Part: Part Seven - Betting on Fourth and Fifth Street
An overbet for value
Turn
You called pre with A♠Q♠. Flop K♠ 9♠ 4♦ gave you the nut flush draw; the turn 7♥ missed. He bets again.
Nut flush draw, he barrels the turn. Best?
WhyNine clean outs to the stone nuts is enough to continue on price alone, and there's a stack behind to win when a spade lands - he keeps barreling into a hand he can't see. Folding the best draw in poker here would be a leak; raising bloats the pot before you've made anything.
What happensYou call and let him keep betting. Pot: 9,200 (46 BB), with position and a live draw.
River
River J♠ - you make the nut flush. Having barreled twice, he now checks.
You have the nuts and his range is strong but capped (he barreled twice). Best?
WhyTwo barrels loaded his range with sets, two pair, and strong top pair - hands that hate the spade but can't fold to a normal bet. Since you'd also fire this big as a bluff with your missed draws, he can't just call the overbets and fold everything else. Against a strong, capped range, the biggest bet you can name is the one that prints.
What happensYou overbet 14,000 into 9,200; he can't fold his set and calls. A pot-sized bet would have won thousands less.
Chasing the nut draw is cheap when the payoff is a hand nobody folds. When it came in against a two-barrel range full of hands that couldn't fold, you sized past the pot - the same spots where you'd overbet a bluff are the spots to overbet the nuts.
When you hold the nuts against a range that is strong but capped, the standard bet leaves money behind. Sizing should scale to what the opponent can call, not to what feels comfortable.