Part: Part Four - Pot Odds & Hand Analysis

A river bluff-catch

Pre-flop
Blinds 100 / 200Pot 1,300 (6.5 BB)BBAJ 20,000 (100 BB)YOUto actBTN 20,000 (100 BB)Aggressive buttonraises 600 (3 BB)SBfoldsD

An aggressive, high-bluff button raises to 600 and you defend the big blind with A♥J♠.

Aggressive button opens to 600 (3 BB); you hold A♥J♠ in the BB. Best?

WhyAgainst a button that opens wide and bluffs hard, A-J offsuit is plenty to defend - and his aggression is the point, since it manufactures the profitable bluff-catches you're planning to make downstream.
What happensYou call and take a flop heads-up against exactly the kind of player who makes bluff-catching pay. Pot: 1,300 (6.5 BB).
Flop
Heads-upPot 1,300 (6.5 BB)J73BBAJ 20,000 (100 BB)YOUtop pair, jack kickerBTN 20,000 (100 BB)Aggressive buttonbets 800 (4 BB)D

Flop: J♦ 7♣ 3♠ - you flop top pair, jack kicker. You check, he c-bets.

Top pair vs an aggressive button who c-bets a ton. Best?

WhyFacing an opponent who barrels far too often, calling keeps his entire bluffing range in the pot; you're converting top pair into a bluff-catcher and committing to pay him off only when the price justifies it.
What happensYou call, keeping his bluffs alive rather than folding out the very hands you beat. Pot: 2,900 (14.5 BB).
Turn
Heads-upPot 2,900 (14.5 BB)J735BBAJ 20,000 (100 BB)YOUtop pair, jack kickerBTN 20,000 (100 BB)Aggressive buttonbets 1,100 (5.5 BB)D

Turn: 5♥ - a blank. He bets again, smallish. You call.

He keeps firing on a dry board. With top pair, jack kicker, best?

WhyNothing about a blank turn changes the read - he still over-bluffs and keeps barreling - so you stay in bluff-catch mode and let the river price make the final call for you.
What happensYou call again, holding your read steady while the pot grows. Pot: 5,100 (25.5 BB).
River
Heads-upPot 5,100 (25.5 BB)J7352BBAJ 20,000 (100 BB)YOUa bluff-catcherBTN 20,000 (100 BB)Aggressive buttonbets 2,000 (10 BB)D

River: 2♣ - bricks. He bets 2,000 into 5,100, so you call 2,000 to win 7,100 (~3.5-to-1). You need to be good ~22% of the time.

Getting ~3.5-to-1 against a habitual bluffer who barrels missed draws here. Best?

WhyThe 2,000-to-win-7,100 price means you only need to be good about 22% of the time. This player's triple-barrel range here is loaded with busted draws and air - well over a quarter bluffs - so even though your top pair beats only his bluffs, it beats enough of them to show a clear profit on the call.
What happensYou call; he shows a busted draw. The math, not the result, is what made it right - you'd make that same call again blind to how it turned out.
You turned the river into arithmetic - a ~3.5-to-1 price needs you good about 22% of the time - and measured that against how often this player bluffs. Bluff-catching is pot odds against a frequency estimate, not a hunch.

To call a river bet you need to be good only as often as the price demands - bet divided by (pot plus twice the bet) - so call when your read puts his bluffs above that break-even frequency.