Part: Part Eight - Making Moves
The semi-bluff
Flop
You called a raise on the button with T♠9♠. Flop J♠ 6♠ 2♦ - a flush draw plus an overcard. The pre-flop raiser checks.
You flop a strong draw and he checks. Best?
WhyHe checked and handed you the initiative on a board where your nine flush outs are live and your ten plays as an overcard. Firing lets him fold his weak made hands tonight, and when he doesn't, you still have a pile of cards to beat him. Checking throws away half of that.
What happensYou bet 1,600, he calls, and the flush bricks off - you lose the pot. That doesn't make the bet wrong: two ways to win beats one even on the nights only the bad half shows up. Judge the decision, not the river card.
The semi-bluff's edge is long-run: fold equity plus real outs. Some of those draws brick and cost you the pot - bet them anyway, because over time the folds and the completions more than pay for the misses.
A draw that bets can win two ways - the fold now, the card later. A draw that only checks can win one. Add fold equity to your equity.