Part: Part Eight - Making Moves
The semi-bluff
Flop
You called a raise on the button with T♠9♠. Flop J♠ 6♠ 2♦ gives you a flush draw. The pre-flop raiser checks.
You flop a strong draw and he checks. Best?
WhyHe checked and handed you the initiative on a board where all nine of your flush outs are live. Firing lets him fold his weak made hands tonight, and when he doesn't, you still have a pile of cards to beat him. Checking throws away half of that.
What happensYou bet 1,600, he calls, and the flush bricks off - you lose the pot. That doesn't make the bet wrong: two ways to win beats one even on the nights only the bad half shows up. Judge the decision, not the river card.
The semi-bluff's edge is long-run: fold equity plus real outs. Some of those draws brick and cost you the pot - bet them anyway, because over time the folds and the completions more than pay for the misses.
A draw that bets can win two ways - the fold now, the card later. A draw that only checks can win one. Add fold equity to your equity.