Part: Part Ten - Adjusting to Different Stacks

ICM near a pay jump

Pre-flop
Blinds 400 / 800 (100 ante)Pot 24,100 (30.1 BB)You: medium • pay-jump pressure (ICM)HJA♠K♦● 18,000 (22.5 BB)YOUto actCO● 30,000 (37.5 BB)Covering stackall-in 22,000 (27.5 BB)SB● 18,000 (22.5 BB)posts 400 (0.5 BB)BB● 18,000 (22.5 BB)posts 800 (1 BB)D

A significant pay jump looms. A stack that covers you jams all-in, and you hold A♠K♦ - at best a coin flip against his range.

Big pay jump near; a covering stack jams and you hold A♠K♦ (about a flip). Best?

WhyA-K feels too strong to fold until you translate chips into dollars: against a covering jam it's roughly a coin flip, and near a big pay jump losing that flip busts you while winning it barely nudges your equity. The survival premium turns a break-even chip decision into a losing money decision. Let the shorter stacks take the risks and bust ahead of you.
What happensYou fold A-K and keep laddering. It'll feel like a nit fold - right up until you remember that here, dollar EV and chip EV point in opposite directions.
You folded a hand you'd snap off in a cash game because near a big pay jump losing your stack costs more in real money than winning it gains - that survival premium is ICM in action.

Chips aren't dollars near a pay jump. Under ICM the stack you'd lose is worth more in real money than the stack you'd win, so flips you'd happily take for chips become folds.