Part: Part Ten - Adjusting to Different Stacks

ICM near a pay jump

Pre-flop
Blinds 400 / 800 (100 ante)Pot 24,100 (30.1 BB)You: medium • pay-jump pressure (ICM)HJA♠K♦● 18,000 (22.5 BB)YOUto actCO● 30,000 (37.5 BB)Covering stackall-in 22,000 (27.5 BB)SB● 18,000 (22.5 BB)posts 400 (0.5 BB)BB● 18,000 (22.5 BB)posts 800 (1 BB)D

A significant pay jump looms. A stack that covers you jams all-in, and you hold A♠K♦ - at best a coin flip against his range.

Big pay jump near; a covering stack jams and you hold A♠K♦ (about a flip). Best?

WhyFold. This is an ICM spot: near a big pay jump the chips you'd lose are worth more than the chips you'd win, so a marginal flip you'd snap-call in a cash game becomes a fold. A-K against a covering jam is roughly a coin flip - decline it and let shorter stacks bust first.
What happensYou fold A-K.  Chip EV isn't dollar EV near a pay jump.
Near a big pay jump you folded a hand you'd happily get in for chips, because losing your stack costs more in real money than winning it gains - the survival premium of ICM.

Near big pay jumps, decline marginal flips you'd take for chips - under ICM the chips you lose are worth more than the chips you win.