Part: Part Four - Pot Odds & Hand Analysis

The set-mining price

Pre-flop
Blinds 100 / 200Pot 900 (4.5 BB)CO4♣4♦● 25,000 (125 BB)YOUto actUTG● 25,000 (125 BB)Openerraises 600 (3 BB)SB● 25,000 (125 BB)posts 100 (0.5 BB)BB● 25,000 (125 BB)posts 200 (1 BB)BTN● 25,000 (125 BB)BTND

A player opens to 600 from under the gun and it folds to you on the cutoff with 4♣4♦. Stacks are 125 BB.

You hold 4♣4♦ facing a 600 (3 BB) raise, 125 BB deep. What justifies calling here?

WhyA small pair almost never wins unimproved against a raiser, so you're calling for one reason: to flop a set, which happens about one in 8.5 - 7.5-to-1 against. The pot alone never lays that, but the stacks do; the rule of thumb is to peel when the call is small next to what you can win, roughly 10-15 times behind. 600 into a 25,000 stack clears that with room to spare.
What happensYou call to set-mine and the blinds fold, the whole play riding on the deep stacks behind. Pot: 1,500 (7.5 BB).
Flop
Heads-upPot 1,500 (7.5 BB)K♦9♣4♥CO4♣4♦● 25,000 (125 BB)YOUbottom setUTG● 25,000 (125 BB)Openerbets 1,000 (5 BB)D

Flop: K♦ 9♣ 4♥ - you flop bottom set, beautifully disguised. He c-bets 1,000.

You flopped a set against a likely big hand. Best?

WhyThis dry king-high board is ideal for flatting: smooth-calling keeps his overpairs and ace-king barreling, hides the set completely, and sets up a bigger pot on later streets. Raising now announces your strength and folds out the exact hands meant to pay you.
What happensYou call, letting him keep betting into the trap. Pot: 3,500 (17.5 BB).
Turn
Heads-upPot 3,500 (17.5 BB)K♦9♣4♥Q♠CO4♣4♦● 25,000 (125 BB)YOUbottom setUTG● 25,000 (125 BB)Openerbets 2,800 (14 BB)D

Turn: Q♠. He keeps betting - he likely has a strong king or an overpair.

He fires again, 2,800 (14 BB). With your set, best?

WhyHis second barrel says he holds a hand that can pay - a strong king or an overpair - and with the pot swelling, a set wants chips in before a flush or straight card can scare him off a scary river. This raise is the return on the implied-odds investment you made pre-flop.
What happensYou raise; he commits with K-Q for top two. Your set is way ahead - the implied odds you paid for finally arrive.
The pre-flop call was bought entirely on implied odds - a small pair chasing a set at a price tiny next to the stacks - and the set delivered the big pot. Those 7.5-to-1 flop odds get paid by the stacks behind, never by the pot in front of you.

Set-mining is pure implied odds - a small pair flops a set about one time in 8.5, so call a raise only when the stacks behind (roughly 10-15 times the call) are deep enough to pay you off when it lands.