Part: Part Four - Pot Odds & Hand Analysis
Not all outs are clean
Pre-flop
It folds to you on the button with Q♥9♥ after a middle-position raise.
Opener makes it 600 (3 BB); you hold Q♥9♥ on the button. Best?
WhyCall. A suited, connected broadway in position is a reasonable call - just be ready to read the board carefully when you flop a draw.
What happensYou call; the blinds fold. Pot: 1,500 (7.5 BB).
Flop
Flop: J♠ T♠ 4♦ - you flop an open-ended straight draw (any K or 8). But the board is two-spade, so the K♠ and 8♠ complete a flush for anyone on a spade draw.
Eight 'outs', but two of them (K♠, 8♠) can hand someone a flush. Your effective outs?
WhyAbout six. Two of your eight straight cards also complete a flush, so against a likely spade draw they can make your straight a loser - you discount them. Six clean outs is only ~24% by the river (rule of 4), and facing a bet and possible re-raise on a wet board, this is now a marginal-to-losing call.
What happensRecognizing the taint, you fold rather than overpay a discounted draw. You fold.
You started with eight outs but two of them could make a second-best hand, so your real equity was lower than it looked - and the call you'd have made at eight outs becomes a fold at six. Count clean outs, not gross ones.
Discount outs that can make you a second-best hand (cards that also complete a flush or pair the board) - effective outs, not gross outs, decide the call.