Part: Part Four - Pot Odds & Hand Analysis
Not all outs are clean
Pre-flop
It folds to you on the button with Q♥9♥ after a middle-position raise.
Opener makes it 600 (3 BB); you hold Q♥9♥ on the button. Best?
WhyA suited, connected broadway plays fine in position against one raiser - just plan to read the board carefully, because not every draw it flops will be as clean as the raw out-count suggests.
What happensYou call and the blinds fold, taking a flop where the texture will matter more than the count. Pot: 1,500 (7.5 BB).
Flop
Flop: J♠ T♠ 4♦ - you flop an open-ended straight draw (any K or 8). But the board is two-spade, so the K♠ and 8♠ complete a flush for anyone on a spade draw.
Eight 'outs', but two of them (K♠, 8♠) can hand someone a flush. Your effective outs?
WhyTwo of your eight straight cards are the K♠ and 8♠ - the very cards that also complete a spade flush, so against a flush draw they make your straight and lose it anyway. Strip those out and you're on about six clean outs, roughly 24% by the rule of four, and facing a bet plus a possible raise on this wet board, that's a losing price.
What happensYou fold - overpaying a draw whose best cards can still lose is exactly how tainted outs quietly bleed away a stack.
Eight outs looked like a call, but two of them could hand an opponent a flush, so your real equity was closer to six outs' worth - and six outs folds where eight would call. Count clean outs, not gross ones.
Discount outs that could make you the second-best hand - cards that also fill a flush or pair the board - and decide on your effective outs, not the gross count.