Part: Part Eight - Making Moves
The over-bet bluff
River
You raised and c-bet an A♥ K♣ 4♠ flop with J♦T♣, were called, and barreled the 5♦ turn. River 2♥ - your straight draw missed entirely. He checks, and the board is very ace-king heavy.
You have air, but you've repped a big ace-king hand all the way on a board where the nuts is easy for you to hold. He checks. Best?
WhyOver-bet bluff. You've told a consistent story of a strong ace, and this board lets you credibly hold the very top of your range (sets, two pair). A polarized over-bet maximizes fold equity against his capped bluff-catchers, who can't profitably call for their whole stack. The move requires exactly this: a credible story and a capped opponent.
What happensYou over-bet 9,000 into 6,000; he folds his pair. The over-bet takes it.
With a busted draw but a consistent big-hand story on a board where you can credibly hold the nuts, you over-bet to put your capped opponent to a decision for everything - and he folded.
Over-bet as a bluff when you're polarized and can credibly represent the nuts against a capped range - the large size maximizes fold equity.